With many fantasy football leagues due to draft within the next few weeks, if not days, there is one dilemma everyone who owns the number one pick is facing, who to take, L.T. or A.P.? For many people this may seem like the easiest question in the world to answer. Do I draft the guy whose played in just 14 NFL games and has some nagging durbaility issues or do i draft the man who may be the greatest fantasy player of all-time?
On the surface it seems like an easy answer, but when you take a deeper look at the dillemma there is defintely some debating that should be done. So let’s take a look at “the great debate” and determine who hsould be the first oplayer taken in this years draft.
A.P. and L.T. who should go first?
Take Tomlinson-
This could be one of the easiest arguments ever made in reference to a fantasy football player. Listen, Tomlinson has been the premiere running back in fantasy football pretty much since he came into the league. So instead of pointing out all of Tomlinsons ridiculous statistics over the years I think we’d all be better served if I exapliend to you why not to pick Adrian Peterson as opposed to why you should pick Tomlinson.
First, A.P. is in a time-share. Yes, despite seemingly erasing the memory of Chester Taylor from the planet Taylor is still in line to carry some of the workload, probably around 120-150 carries. There is no way the Vikings will want to risk overusing such a talent as A.P. especially when you have a more than capable backup to share the workload. Taylor averaged 5.2 YPC last year and it seems likely that Minnesotta will continue to use him as long as he produces at that rate.
Second, and Im sorry to say it folks especially to you Viking fans, but A.P. just cannot seem to staty healthy for a full season. Yes he receovered relatively quickly from the knee injury that sidelined him last season, but he was plagued by injuries throughout his collegiate carrer and the trend seems to be continuing into the pros. L.T. on the other hand has missed just one game in his illustrious career due to injury.
Third, A.P. has Tarvaris JAckson as his Q.B. I don’t know if that is enough said right there, but it should at least raise an eyebrow. Jackson may develop into a good QB someday, but until he does defenses are going to focus on one thing and one thing only…stopping Minnesota’s ground game. Expect to see a lot of teams stacking eight or nine in the box to prevent Peterson from doing what he does best.
Take Peterson-
This may seem like a tough argument to make, but it really isn’t that hard when you consider some of the following factors.
First, L.T. is still the best back in the league but he has shouldered a tremendous amount of work throughout his career. Though Tomlinson is just 29 years old he has more mileage then my 1981 Honda Civic. His 2,365 career carries rank 20th all-time in league history. So far Tomlinson has carried the ball over 300 times in seven straight seasons. The only other running back to accomplish such a feat was Eddie George who averaged a meager 3.3 YPC carry in his eight season of such a workload.
Second, Tomlinson is coming off of the worst injury of his career. Granted by most peoples assesments it is not an injury that should longer and he has participated iv every team event including mini-camps, but knee injuries are tricky and its hard to judge how long on can be plagued by such an injury. The injury was classified as a grade 2 MCL sprain and was significant enough to keep Tomlinson out of a playoff game so it’s definetely something to think about.
Consider this as well, last year Peterson ran for just 133 fewer yards then Tomlinson despite missing two games, being limited in 4 others and starting just 9 games total. Basically, Peterson almost matched L.T.’s production with a bad knee, and 77 fewer carries. Perterson is also in line for an increase in goal line carries next season after receiving just 6 goal line touches all of last year.
Now, Tomlinson seemingly plays for the better team with more offensive weapons, but Phillip Rivers is recovering from a torn ACL, and Antonio Gates has yet to fully recover from the toe injury he suffered in the post season.
The Vikings on the other hand are a team on the rise. The addition of Jared Allen to an already staunch defensive unit should help the Vikings secure more leads and enable them to run the ball with greater frequency. Also, Bernard Berrian and rising star Syndney Rice give so-so QB tarvaris Jackson some quality options at wideout.
The Verdict:
If you are drafting for upside then Peterson is the obvious choice with more of a chance to produce some mind numbing numbers. However, if you want to know exactly what you are going to get then L.T. is your man. Me, I’ve always been a gambler and if I land the number one pick I’m taking A.P. but honestly I wouldn’t mind picking second either.