By Matt Valentine
How do you define a fantasy football sleeper? I like to take a couple of factors into account.
First, they should not be ranked highly on anyone’s draft board. Hence the term sleeper. These are late round picks who you think have a chance to produce.
Second, and perhaps the most important factor is opportunity. A player may find himself in a better situation then last season, or may just be an injury away from acquiring a starting role, these are players you want to keep an eye on.
Third, and the most ambiguous of all my factors, is a hunch. You may just feel like a guy is due for a breakout season (think Braylon Edwards, Brandon Marshall from the 2007 campaign) late round picks are used for reserve players, feel free to take a chance on a guy you feel is going to have a big season. Even if he doesn’t, toss him to the waiver wire and grab someone else, no harm done. Playing a hunch actually earned me a fantasy football championship when I selected little known running back Frank Gore prior to the 2006 season very, very late in my draft. All he ended up doing was rushing for 1,695 yards and 8 TD and was a major reason I won the league.
Now that we know what my factors are for picking a sleeper (you can insert your own factors as you please) let’s take a look at some of my favorite sleepers for your 2008 fantasy football draft.
Running Back Sleepers (In no particular order):
1. Rashard Mendenhall-Pittsburgh Steelers
I’m not too high on Willie Parker, and apparently neither are the Steelers. That would explain why they drafted Mendenhall with their first round pick. Parker can’t seem to get it done in the redzone scoring just twice last season and despite ranking 6th in the league in rushing yards he had the worst YPC (4.1) of his career. A platoon seems likely in the Steel City this season and the primary beneficiary of that platoon should be Mendenhall, who is a bigger, stronger, and more between the tackles runner then Parker. If Mendenhall stays healthy (he had hamstring issues in mini-camp) he should secure the goal-line duties in Pittsburgh and may find himself splitting carries with Parker at some point during the season. Easily worth a late round flier in any league.
2. Steve Slaton- Houston Texans
A deep, deep sleeper here, but one who has landed in a situation that should provide plenty of opportunity (notice the key phrase). Slaton possesses blazing , breakaway speed and is known for his playmaking ability. The only two people standing in Slaton’s way are the injury prone Ahman Green and the unimpressive Chris Brown. Durability may be an issue for Slaton especially at the NFL so it is something to keep in mind. I don’t know if I would use a draft pick on Slaton, but he is definitely worth keeping an eye on in 2008. If Green goes down with an injury I’d pluck Slaton off the waiver wire as fast as possible.
3. Kevin Smith- Detroit Lions
Smith was a workhorse in college at Central Florida and had a more then impressive seasons last year rushing for 2,500 yards and 29 TD. He finds himself on a Detroit team that could use a big time runner in a big way. Have you seen Tatum Bell play? Because I have and it is nothing to write home about. Kevin Jones on the other hand has never been able to keep himself on the field and still managed 8 TD last season, imagine what a running back with Smith’s talent could do if given the same chance as Jones. Smith could end up being the best sleeper selection in all of fantasy football and could turn into a solid RB2 option if he earns the starting job. Don’t hesitate to use a late round pick on this sleeper.
4. Michael Turner- Atlanta Falcons
Turner has finally been given the chance to step out from Tomlinson’s shadow and prove that he can be an elite back in the NFL. Turner hasn’t had many carries in the league, but he’s gotten the most out of every single one. In 228 career touches he’s rushed for 1257 yards for a 5.5 YPC average and 6 TD, thats a solid fantasy season for an RB 2/3. Turner also plays on a team with rookie QB Matt Ryan meaning that the Falcons will have to lean heavily on their running game until Ryan gets up to speed with playing at the NFL level. I like the situation, I love the opportunity and given where I’ve seen Turner go in drafts (around the 10th round in a 10 man league) I like his place on people’s draft boards…all very good things.
5. Matt Forte- Chicago Bears
Forte finds himself as the Bears first option at the running back position after Cedric Benson was waived by the team for another run in with the law. Forte has the tools to be an excellent back in the league, as he demonstrated throughout his college career and at the NFL Combine where he was a top performer in the 40 yard dash, 3-cone drill, 20 and 60 yard shuttle. Coach Lovie Smith told the press that the team has no intentions of pursuing a veteran running back to challenge Forte for the starting role, solidifying his position as the go-to-guy on the team. This should put Forte in line for about 300 carries in 2008 and I like any starting RB that I can get late in a draft that will touch the ball 300 times. Take a chance on Forte and he may pay off big.